In this guide, we will voice our own and market’s opinion on Avalance future while discussing AVAX price forecast for 2023 and beyond.
Please bear in mind that you should take this and any other prediction with a grain of salt since predicting anything is a thankless task, let alone predicting the future of a novel, highly volatile financial asset like Avalanche.
Now, let’s head into it.
Before we delve deep into the Iota price prediction and answer questions if Avalanche is a good investment or not, why will Avalanche succeed or fail or why will Avalanche price rise or drop, let’s quickly throw a glance at what is Avalanche and its to date history.
What you'll learn 👉
Avalanche is an overarching platform for launching decentralized finance (DeFi) applications, financial assets, trading and other services.
The goal is to be something of a global assets exchange, allowing anyone to launch or trade any form of asset and control it in a decentralized manner using smart contracts and other cutting-edge technologies.
Team behind the project is Ava Labs and Developers at Ava Labs claim that Avalanche is the first smart contracts network to offer transaction finalization in under one second as standard.
AVAX launched its mainnet in September 2020. The platform’s native token, AVAX, performs various tasks within Avalanche and also functions as a rewards and payment system for users.
Avalanche is the first smart contracts platform that can confirm transactions in under one second, supports the entirety of the Ethereum development toolkit, and enables millions of independent validators to participate as full block producers (Avalanche had over 1,000 full, block-producing nodes on its Denali testnet).
In addition to supporting transaction finality under one second, Avalanche is capable of throughput orders of magnitude greater than existing decentralized blockchain networks (4,500+ transactions/second) and security thresholds well-above the 51% standards of other networks.
AVAX is the native token of Avalanche. It is a hard-capped, scarce asset that is used to pay for fees, secure the platform through staking, and provide a basic unit of account between the multiple subnets created on Avalanche.
Avalanche is a proof-of-stake (PoS) protocol which rewards users for staking coins. PoS networks have come under fire for their low attack cost, which in some cases has exposed serious vulnerabilities.
According to Ava Labs, Avalanche gets around this by changing governance to make it all but impossible for an attacker to covertly gain the necessary consensus.
Since the whole market is tightly correlated, general sentiment is always the first thing to check before predicting the prices of individual coins. So, let us do a quick overview of the market. After a brutal crypto winter in 2022, the market has shown signs of life in 2023. Bitcoin has rallied 80% so far, putting it on track for its best year since 2020. Ethereum is also up 50% year-to-date. Several factors have fueled this crypto rebound. Most notably, Ripple Labs won a key legal victory against the SEC in June, leading to a short-lived price bounce. Renewed institutional interest has also provided a boost, with major firms like BlackRock pushing for Bitcoin ETF approval. Meanwhile, inflation has triggered a crypto comeback as digital assets gain appeal as an anti-inflation hedge. However, major headwinds persist. The total crypto market cap stands at $1.1 trillion after peaking at $3 trillion in late 2021. And volatility remains high. Bitcoin spiked to a 2023 high near $32,000 in May but has since pulled back below $30,000 amidst intensifying regulatory scrutiny. The SEC continues targeting top exchanges like Coinbase and Binance. While the worst of crypto winter seems over, the road to full recovery looks long. But institutional adoption continues growing steadily, and some analysts forecast Bitcoin topping $100,000 within a couple years. Regulatory actions remain crucial to watch. If cryptocurrencies can cement themselves as digital gold safe havens, macro trends could fuel their next bull run. But more clampdowns present downside risk. After a tumultuous 2022, 2023 shows crypto turning a corner – but uncertainty still looms large.
Below is a tabular overview of how will AVAX develop in the short-term (for the next 90 days), according to our prediction model:
Looking ahead to the second half of 2023, the cryptocurrency market shows promising signs of a potential rebound. Bitcoin’s 80% gain so far and renewed institutional interest indicate positive momentum. Despite regulatory challenges, the market remains resilient, with a total capitalization of $1.1 trillion. Anticipation is high for a positive and prosperous period ahead, with experts closely monitoring market trends and institutional crypto activity.
CaptainAltcoin’s prediction model takes market sentiment into an account and reacts accordingly. Below is a month-by-month breakdown of the last months of 2022 and 2023:
Our prediction model sees AVAX reaching $ 19.21 in 2025.
The price of AVAX in 5 years could lie around $ 17.81, according to CaptainAltcoin’s prediction model.
Our forecasting model sees Avalanche reaching $48.01 in 2030.
Our forecasting model sees Avalanche reaching $96.03 in 2040.
No, Avalanche will not replace or overtake BTC.
Yes, it is possible that Avalanche can reach $1000 but only in a distanced future, after 2030.
We are advocates of moderately risky investing – invest most of your crypto portfolio in BTC (50%); 35% in a basket of big cap coins and the rest in small projects with huge upside. So, in this context, Avalanche is worth buying.
Avalanche is, just like all other cryptocurrencies, a risky investment. It does have higher probability of going up than down because of the good use case, well-designed tokenomics, active community and a solid team behind it.
For the short-term future, it could reach $6.06. In the long-term (8-10 years), it could jump to $48.01 or even higher.
Avalanche has a good use case, well-designed tokenomics, active community and a solid team behind it. All of these are a prerequisite for success and that is why our prediction model sees Avalanche rising up to $48.01 in 2030.
Crypto projects fail for various reasons. Some of the most common ones are: team goes rogue and abandons the project, regulators declare it illegal and press exchanges to delist it, lack of media attention, more successful competitors, lack of well designed marketing strategy, losing community support, potential vulnerability in the protocol, failing to achieve anticipated minimum developement activity on the protocol, failing to attract new developers to build on their platform.
Our forecasting model sees Avalanche price exploding and reaching $96.03 in a distant future.
Avalanche will reach $6.06 in the next 90 days, which is a 38.8% change over the current price which hovers around $9.90.
Yes, if you buy large enough sum of it. Do not expect to invest $100 and become a Avalanche millionaire. But 100x price explosions are a common sight in crypto, so a $10k investment in Avalanche could make you a millionaire.
Avalanche will hover around $10.65 tomorrow.
That depends on your trading profile. If you believe in Avalanche and think it has a bright future, holding the coin for at least a couple of years is a good idea. Taking profits on good investments is an even better idea. So if you are sitting on 100-200% or even more gains on your Avalanche, cashing out a portion of the funds is not a bad move.
Avalanche almost certainly will not collapse and crash. People are usually worried that the coin might go to zero if the price of their investment is lagging or going down. That is a natural osciallation in any trading market, prices soar and dip all the time.
No, Avalanche price will not explode and record 5-10x pumps; but grow more modestly with an increase of 17.6% in the next year.
Avalanche price in 10 years will hover between $48.01 and $96.03.
Avalanche will reach $12.09 in 2023, which is a 22.08% change over the current price.
Avalanche will reach $14.61 in 2024, which is a 47.55% change over the current price.
Avalanche will reach $20.22 in 2026, which is a 104.24% change over the current price.
Avalanche will reach $25.98 in 2027, which is a 162.44% change over the current price.
Avalanche will reach $31.74 in 2028, which is a 220.64% change over the current price.
Avalanche will reach $37.50 in 2029, which is a 278.84% change over the current price.
Avalanche will reach $148.55 in 2050, which is a 1400.59% change over the current price.
Yes, Avalanche could reach $100 by the end of 2024.
Many investors (traditional and crypto) will tell you that fundamentals are extremely important and should carry the most weight when you assess a project. We agree with this claim, to an extent.
Crypto is specific in a sense that fundamentals are hard to rely on. How come?
Well, most of the crypto investors are not technologically refined to understand if it is even feasible to do what the project claims to be doing. This leads to exaggerated and unsubstantiated roadmaps by many crypto project teams. These roadmaps sound terrific and people flock to invest in the project even though, with a little technical or economical knowledge, they would have seen how ridiculous some of those ideas are.
⚡️ Use case
For this reason, it is always good to check the feasibility of the use case by consulting someone more technically astute.
For example, a lot of these projects noticed the transaction speed issue with Bitcoin so they went all-in with how fast their blockchains are. But that speed came at a cost of decentralization. Essentially, they claimed to have solved a blockchain trilemma, which bugged geniuses for centuries. But some twenty-something no-names solved it in a week or so.
Use case is not very original. Yet another smart contracts platform that aims to be faster and more efficient than Ethereum. Making ground on ETH will be a steep hill to climb. However, the technology behind Avalanche does have revolutionary potential. Avalanche is capable of processing higher throughput than Visa (4500 tps per subnet), sub-second finality, low gas fees, offering unparalleled decentralization by being able to scale the number of validators to millions with their revolutionary consensus protocol, as well as offering a highly customizable interoperable heterogeneous platform.
Assessing the team behind the project is another point that needs to be addressed. More often than not, those people will be the only source of their claims (and doctored LinkedIn profiles). So, even though this is an important criterion, bear in mind that a cunning team of marketers can fake legitimacy.
One huge RED FLAG about a team is tweeting, posting, blogging about the price of their token. No legitimate team does that as they have smarter things to do – like work on a multi-million dollar project of theirs. Only money grabbers run their official social media and blogs as the most blatant market manipulators (example: Justin Sun) to run the price up before they dump their mountains of coins they created out of nothing and awarded to themselves.
Such teams usually pay off low-tier crypto media publications to post “unbiased” articles and reviews of their projects in an attempt to create an illusion of a widely respected and attractive project.
Very transparent and professional, lead by Emin Gün Sirer, a professor at Cornell and a well-known crypto figure. No social media account does price action shilling or commenting. Instead, they are focused on building with regular updates on development progress, hackathons, technological partnerships and ecosystem growth.
Community – pay special attention to this one. Size of the community is not relevant as it can easily be faked (just check Fiverr or Upwork to see how easy is to buy 100k of Twitter followers or subreddit subscribers).
What is more important is the content those community members post – does it look real? Is it only price-centered? It it allowed to exercise some critical thinking or the only posts allowed are shills and cult-like idolizing of the team (most often the team leader gets a rockstar status among the sheepish investors).
Low to moderate activity on their subreddit with a noticeably growing activity. There are pretty active Telegram and Discord groups. Seems to be genuine and authentic, no bots and no low-quality posts about price action and getting rich quick convo.
⚡️ Exchanges and wallet support
Another good indicator of how serious is the project taken by other crypto agents. Some smaller and marginal exchanges and wallets can be paid off for listings but larger platforms like Kraken, Binance or Coinbase lend legitimacy to a project that is listed there. So, that is a great cue if the project is actually worth something among its peers.
Very good support among the popular exchanges (Binance, FTX, OkEx etc). However, wallet solutions are still lacking and many popular multi-currency wallets like Atomic Wallet, Trust Wallet etc. are yet to integrate AVAX network. However, Avalanche has its own Avalanche Wallet, non-custodial wallet that works with Ledger Nano X and S.
Sometimes the project makes sense and everything sounds right except of the token role. It is just superfluous and forced into the picture (so the team can take the money and get rich). Aside of the logic behind the token, you should pay attention to its current and overall supply. Also, inflation and new coins production rate is extremely important. Distribution among the team, early investors and regular users is also of immense consequence. Check Ripple and XRP to see how hard is to have organic price growth when there is a whole slew of people who dump millions of new (unlocked) tokens into the market each week.
It is important that tokens are woven into the project with clever incentives in mind. It is all about incentives in the world of crypto – why should the buyer hold some coin, what is in it for him? Different projects use different methods to entice people to buy and hold their coin.
Tokenomics of AVAX are solid.
The token distribution details were as follows: 360 Million AVAX were minted at launch, whilst the other 360 Million will be used as Staking rewards released over decades. Avalanche has a fixed capped supply of 720 million, creating scarcity. 360 Million tokens were minted at launch (with the vast majority locked up in vesting periods between 1 and 10 years) whilst the other 360 million are used for rewards for staking. As with Bitcoin, reward rates will decrease over time as it gets closer to the capped supply
The private token sale included prominent venture firms such as Andreessen Horowitz (a16z).
Fees for all sorts of operations on the network are paid out in AVAX. These are then burned, reducing the supply, and increasing the scarcity of AVAX for all token holders. If the number of AVAX burned exceeds the amount minted in staking rewards (which can be controlled through governance) then this creates deflationary pressures.
⚡️ Trading volume
Trading volume is another excellent barometer of the quality of the assets. This can also be faked by automatic and wash trading on small exchanges but, just filter those out and see if there is actual liquidity on the bigger platforms.
Solid and consistent trading volume in the last 3 months with ocassional spikes and drops. It usually moves between $200 million to $1 billion of daily trading volume which means AVAX is very liquid and easy to buy or sell off.
Now, we’re talking about the really impactful market forces.
Unfortunately, the power of social media, especially Twitter, Discord, and Telegram groups and to a smaller extent subreddits and Facebook groups, often outweighs the fundamentals of a crypto project. As a consequence, we see trash and half-dead zombie projects like Dogecoin, Electroneum, Verge, Tron (not dead but everything is faked around it, from the number of users and dapps to the unoriginal and uninspiring, incompetent leadership) and similar shitcoins rising up in the market cap rankings, sometimes even entering the top 10.
The speculative wave can lift you into the skies but can, more often, smash your portfolio into a big zilch.
Some people are good at swimming with these sharks (Twitter personas hidden behind some lame nicknames like Crypto [INSERT ANIMAL) or Crypto [INSERT VERB]) that coordinate their shilling and price pumps and dumps. However, ordinary crypto buyers have no time or skills to keep up with them and are used as a plankton – food for the bigger crypto sea creatures to feast on.
Nevertheless, social media can be a place you run into some good tips about hidden gems. When you read something that sparks your interest, don’t get overexcited and invest right away. Instead, put it on a watchlist and check all of the stuff we mentioned above.
The key thing to look for is authenticity – does the community, social media posts of crypto personas, articles about the project on crypto media look legit? Is it posted by the well respected people with a strong reputation or by no-names who shill coins left and right? Is the community aware of potential flaws of the chosen project and is it allowed to discuss them? Are there systemic complaints of sudden bans and censorship by the community moderators?
A good project is not that hard to recognize and once you see posts about it by other people – check their profiles, check their tweet/post history, see if the recommendation comes across as a genuine suggestion or an artificial shill made out of self-interest?
Avalanche seems to garner attention of a wide crypto base, tweets and posts about it on social media seem to be genuine and uncoordinated which means people recognize it as a legit project.
There are a lot of crypto Twitter profiles with $AVAX in their profile descriptions which means they can generate a lof of hype behind every positive move of Ava Labs. These events usually lead to short-term price spikes and long-term brand awareness increase.
Having analyzed all of the above on Avalanche, we can say that this is a legit project with a tough task in front of it – outcompeting Ethereum and other smart contract platforms. It enjoys a good standing in the crypto circles and could be a worthy investment in the short and long term.
Staking encourages large amounts of tokens to be locked up for long periods of time, reducing circulating supply and when combined with increased demand for the token due to its multifaceted utility, then price is likely to increase significantly.
This is how you can buy Avalanche (AVAX):
If you are not happy with Binance or can’t use it for some reason, here are a couple of alternatives:
That is how you buy Avalanche, in a nutshell.
However, wallet solutions are still lacking and many popular multi-currency wallets like Atomic Wallet, Trust Wallet etc. are yet to integrate AVAX network. However, Avalanche has its own Avalanche Wallet, non-custodial wallet that works with Ledger Nano X and S.
You will always want to know if the effort of trading was worth it as opposed to just hodling BTC. You should also account for the time you spent trading as that time also has value.
For example, if you spent 15 hours trading altcoins and you ended up having the same amount of Satoshis, it means you have wasted those 15 hours and would have been better off if you simply held BTC.
Since Bitcoin sits in between the Fiat and Alt Coin sandwich, you should only ever trade in BTC value.
If I invest in an altcoin at .17 cents at 10k Sats and in 6 months, I cash out at .93 cents at 10k Sats. Did I make money in that altcoin?
The answer is no. Your opportunity cost was equal to holding bitcoin since the sat values didn’t move, the price of BTC going up is what netted you your increase in fiat. Not the increase of sats on STEEM.
If, however, you cashed out of STEEM at 20k sats at .93 cents over the course of 6 months, that means you made a profit in satoshi value as well as USD value (through bitcoin).
I can’t stress enough how important it is to construct an actual investment strategy. Organize what your goals are, what your risk tolerance is and how you plan to construct a portfolio to achieve those goals rather than just chasing the flavor of the week.
Why? Because it will force you to slow down and make decisions based on rational thinking rather than emotion, and will also inevitably lead you to think long term.
Bluntly put, a lot of young investors who are in crypto have really unrealistic expectations about returns and risk.
A lot of them have never invested in any other type of financial asset, and hence many seem to consider a 10% ROI in a month to be unexciting, even though that is roughly what they should be aiming for.
I see a ton of people making their decisions with the expectation to double their money every month. This has lead a worrying amount of newbies putting in way too much money way too quickly into anything on the front page of CoinMarketCap with a low dollar value per coin hoping that crypto get them out of their debt or a life of drudgery in a cubicle. And all in the next year or two!
Keep in mind that a 10% monthly increase when compounded equals a 313% annual return, or over 3x your money. That may not sound exciting to those who entered recently and saw their money go 20x in a month on something like Aave before it crashed back down.
Consider the individual risk of each crypto and start looking for red flags:
While all cryptocurrencies are a risky investments but generally you can break down cryptos into “low” risk core, medium risk speculative and high risk speculative
CaptainAltcoin's writers and guest post authors may or may not have a vested interest in any of the mentioned projects and businesses. None of the content on CaptainAltcoin is investment advice nor is it a replacement for advice from a certified financial planner. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of CaptainAltcoin.com
Rene Peters is editor-in-chief of CaptainAltcoin and is responsible for editorial planning and business development. After his training as an accountant, he studied diplomacy and economics and held various positions in one of the management consultancies and in couple of digital marketing agencies. He is particularly interested in the long-term implications of blockchain technology for politics, society and the economy.
Hi, so AVAX would fall under which risk? Low? Medium or High?
AVAX is in the territory of medium risk projects with a tendency of moving into the top tier, low-risk coins.
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