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The bitcoin price, after trading sideways for a month, took a sharp leg down last week even as the crypto market gears up for what could be a huge September earthquake.
Now, Dan Morehead, the influential founder of crypto investment company Pantera Capital, has called Ripple’s claimed XRP legal victory “a positive black swan” and said he expects the bitcoin price to climb to $150,000 during its next four-year halving cycle—something that would give bitcoin a market capitalization of around $3 trillion.
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The bitcoin price has dipped in recent weeks following a rally that saw it double since the … [+]
“That could be the positive black swan that we’re all concerned about. The next ‘shoe to drop’ could be a nice thing,” Morehead said during a Bloomberg Invest panel in comments shared in a Pantera letter to investors, referring to an unexpected event, usually negative, that has a major effect and is inappropriately rationalized in it’s aftermath.
“Everybody ignores black swans until one happens. Then all everybody wants to talk about is ‘the next shoe to drop’. I would say the biggest surprise is that we already had all these massive shoes drop last year—and it’ll be nothing crazy happening. But if you make me say something, I would say regulatory clarity is the one thing nobody’s expecting.”
Morehead went on to argue next year’s bitcoin halving, which will see the current bitcoin reward paid to miners cut by half, will cause the bitcoin price to rocket to almost $150,000.
“The next halving is expected to occur on April 20, 2024. Since most bitcoins are now in circulation, each halving will be almost exactly half as big a reduction in new supply,” Morehead wrote. “If history were to repeat itself, the next halving would see bitcoin rising to $35,000 before the halving and $148,000 after.”
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U.S. lawmakers and judges are currently grappling with rules around bitcoin and crypto as the country scrambles to remain competitive with other areas around the world amid what some have described as a U.S. crypto exodus.
In July, XRP developer Ripple won a partial victory in a landmark court ruling over the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) after the SEC sued Ripple on allegations that it sold billions of dollars worth of XRP as unregistered securities.
A judge ruled the sale of XRP tokens on exchanges did not constitute investment contracts, however, traders were thrust back into uncertainty by another judge who rejected the ruling just weeks later, erasing XRP price gains and weighing on bitcoin and etheruem.
Some bitcoin and crypto market analysts remain confident the recent bitcoin price drop will be short-lived, however.
“The futures markets confirm the absence of bearish momentum, as current data in the cryptocurrency markets indicates an excessive demand to buy bitcoin from levels of $24,000 and $25,000 before the recent collapse,” Rania Gule, market analyst at broker XS, said in emailed comments. “However, this does not guarantee a swift return of bitcoin to the strong support level at $29,000. It does, however, reduce the likelihood of a sharp continuation of the price decline.”